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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 2-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model