Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Miami Dolphins 0

(10:32) 5-M.Scifres punts 37 yards to MIA 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-J.Landry, dead ball declared at MIA 28 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model