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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model