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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CAR
55.3%
NYG
44.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.219 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Eli Manning (NYG) +0.175 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.182 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 26
–
NYG 25
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CAR

David Mayo LB Out Hamstring
Jonathan Stewart RB Out Foot
Colin Jones S Doubtful Groin
Jared Allen DE Probable Not Injury Related
Brenton Bersin WR Probable Groin
Jerricho Cotchery WR Probable Not Injury Related
Thomas Davis LB Probable Not Injury Related
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Not Injury Related
Ted Ginn WR Probable Not Injury Related
Roman Harper S Probable Not Injury Related
Ryan Kalil C Probable Not Injury Related
Greg Olsen TE Probable Knee
Charles Tillman CB Probable Knee

NYG

Devon Kennard LB Out Foot
Markus Kuhn DT Out Knee
George Selvie DE Out Concussion
Ereck Flowers T Questionable Ankle
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Shoulder
J.T. Thomas LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 38
–
NYG 35

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:41 TD CAR (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 19-T.Ginn for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 01:33 TD NYG (1:33) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 82-R.Randle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 02:26 TD CAR (2:26) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:21 TD CAR (:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 17-D.Funchess for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – NYG 7
  • Q3 10:14 TD CAR (10:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 10-C.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 27 – NYG 7
  • Q3 05:38 TD CAR (5:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 19-T.Ginn for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-19-T.Ginn, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 34 – NYG 7
  • Q3 01:27 TD NYG (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 45-W.Tye for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 35 – NYG 13
  • Q4 13:34 TD NYG (13:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 35 – NYG 20
  • Q4 05:36 TD NYG (5:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 34-S.Vereen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 35 – NYG 27
  • Q4 01:51 TD NYG (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 35 – NYG 34
  • Q4 00:05 FG CAR (:05) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. Penalty on NYG-13-O.Beckham Jr., Illegal Formation, declined. CAR 38 – NYG 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (12:50) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to CAR 4, Center-57-D.Aiken, downed by NYG-46-J.Morris.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:46) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to CAR 49, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at CAR 32 for 17 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on NYG-25-T.Jacobs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 40. Officially, a return for 9 yards.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 45%

    (10:29) 9-B.Wing punts 29 yards to CAR 12, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Harris to NYG 11 for 2 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on NYG-20-P.Amukamara, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 6. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:55) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to CAR 25, Center-57-D.Aiken. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 25 for no gain (21-L.Collins). PENALTY on CAR-56-A.Klein, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 25.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:10) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to NYG 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Harris to NYG 31 for 2 yards (33-T.Boston).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:56) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-57-D.Aiken, Touchback.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:26) 8-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to NYG 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham Jr..

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:34) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to CAR 20, Center-57-D.Aiken. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 28 for 8 yards (54-J.Casillas).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:38) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to NYG 40, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:54) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to CAR 20, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:34) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to CAR 27, Center-57-D.Aiken. 19-T.Ginn to NYG 37 for 36 yards (26-O.Darkwa).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 35%

    (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. to CAR 40 for 5 yards (24-J.Norman). PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham Jr., Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:55) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to NYG 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham Jr. to NYG 34 for 21 yards (84-E.Dickson, 53-B.Jacobs).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (9:00) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman, RECOVERED by NYG-20-P.Amukamara at NYG 45. 20-P.Amukamara to CAR 46 for 9 yards (9-G.Gano).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:25) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to NYG 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham Jr..

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.