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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 14

New York Giants 28 – Carolina Panthers 35

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP