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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 58

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-57-D.Aiken, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model