4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 75

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to CAR 27, Center-57-D.Aiken. 19-T.Ginn to NYG 37 for 36 yards (26-O.Darkwa).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model