Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 95

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to CAR 49, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at CAR 32 for 17 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on NYG-25-T.Jacobs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 40. Officially, a return for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.08 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 95, worth -5.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model