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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 8-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to NYG 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham Jr..

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model