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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to NYG 40, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model