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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to CAR 20, Center-57-D.Aiken. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 28 for 8 yards (54-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP