Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- NYJ defense: -0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TEN defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
TEN
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:17 TD NYJ (9:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 87-E.Decker for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – NYJ 6
- Q1 00:51 FG NYJ (:51) 8-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TEN 0 – NYJ 10
- Q2 09:25 FG NYJ (9:25) 8-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TEN 0 – NYJ 13
- Q2 04:26 TD NYJ (4:26) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 29-B.Powell for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – NYJ 19
- Q2 01:44 TD NYJ (1:44) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. TEN 0 – NYJ 26
- Q3 04:16 TD TEN (4:16) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-A.Andrews. 26-A.Andrews pass deep right to 8-M.Mariota for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NYJ 27
- Q4 02:45 FG NYJ (2:45) 8-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TEN 8 – NYJ 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:55) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NYJ 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 39 for 12 yards (28-M.Huff).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%
(5:35) 8-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%
(4:01) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%
(:51) 8-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%
(10:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right guard to TEN 11 for 2 yards (59-W.Woodyard; 51-D.Bass).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(9:25) 8-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(7:47) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYJ 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 28 for 7 yards (28-M.Huff).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:55) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 87-E.Decker to NYJ 31 for 11 yards (37-C.Riggs).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(12:53) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NYJ 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 10 for 2 yards (37-C.Riggs).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:21) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-T.Purdum. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 14 for 2 yards (26-Dar.Walls). NYJ-19-D.Smith was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(15:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 55%
(10:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 49 for -13 yards (56-D.Davis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 40%
(8:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(8:13) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 87-E.Decker.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%
(2:45) 8-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 30 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%
(1:07) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker to NYJ 25 for 5 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 19 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.98 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%
(:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 89-P.Supernaw.
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