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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
31.0%
NYJ
69.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
NYJ 25
Projected margin: NYJ by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TEN

Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil LB Out Knee
Mike Martin DT Out Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Out Shoulder
Kendall Wright WR Out Ribs
Tre McBride WR Questionable Abdomen
Anthony Fasano TE Probable Shoulder
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee
Dexter McCluster RB Probable Knee

NYJ

Marcus Williams CB Questionable Knee
Dion Bailey S Probable Ankle
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Hip
Kellen Davis TE Probable Hand
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Jeremy Kerley WR Probable Illness
Nick Mangold C Probable Hand
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Ribs
Calvin Pryor S Probable Neck
Darrelle Revis CB Probable Concussion
Calvin Pace LB Probable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 8
–
NYJ 30

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:17 TD NYJ (9:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 87-E.Decker for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 00:51 FG NYJ (:51) 8-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TEN 0 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 09:25 FG NYJ (9:25) 8-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TEN 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 04:26 TD NYJ (4:26) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 29-B.Powell for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – NYJ 19
  • Q2 01:44 TD NYJ (1:44) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. TEN 0 – NYJ 26
  • Q3 04:16 TD TEN (4:16) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-A.Andrews. 26-A.Andrews pass deep right to 8-M.Mariota for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 02:45 FG NYJ (2:45) 8-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. TEN 8 – NYJ 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:55) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NYJ 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 39 for 12 yards (28-M.Huff).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%

    (5:35) 8-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

    (4:01) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%

    (:51) 8-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (10:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right guard to TEN 11 for 2 yards (59-W.Woodyard; 51-D.Bass).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (9:25) 8-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:47) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYJ 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 28 for 7 yards (28-M.Huff).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:55) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 87-E.Decker to NYJ 31 for 11 yards (37-C.Riggs).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:53) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NYJ 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 10 for 2 yards (37-C.Riggs).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:21) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-T.Purdum. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 14 for 2 yards (26-Dar.Walls). NYJ-19-D.Smith was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (15:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 55%

    (10:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 49 for -13 yards (56-D.Davis).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 40%

    (8:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:13) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 87-E.Decker.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (2:45) 8-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker to NYJ 25 for 5 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.98 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 89-P.Supernaw.