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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 24

New York Jets 27 – Tennessee Titans 8

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 8-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.41 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model