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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model