4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 87-E.Decker to NYJ 31 for 11 yards (37-C.Riggs).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model