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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NYJ 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 10 for 2 yards (37-C.Riggs).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model