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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 29

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 8-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model