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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 38

Tennessee Titans 8 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 49 for -13 yards (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -3.13 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model