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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 8 – New York Jets 30

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 89-P.Supernaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +1.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.98 EP