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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NYJ 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 39 for 12 yards (28-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model