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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

IND
43.3%
JAX
56.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

IND

Daniel Adongo LB Out Not Injury Related
Anthony Castonzo T Out Knee
Jerrell Freeman LB Out Hamstring
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Erik Walden LB Doubtful Foot
Colt Anderson S Questionable Ankle
Khaled Holmes C Questionable Fibula
D'Qwell Jackson LB Questionable Quadricep
Gregory Toler CB Questionable Knee
Phillip Dorsett WR Probable Ankle
Matt Hasselbeck QB Probable Neck
Hugh Thornton G Probable Elbow
Griff Whalen WR Probable Hamstring

JAX

Paul Posluszny LB Out Hand
Ryan Davis DE Questionable Knee
Bryan Walters WR Questionable Back
Nic Jacobs TE Questionable Hamstring
Sergio Brown S Probable Hamstring
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Johnathan Cyprien S Probable Neck
Dan Skuta LB Probable Groin
T.J. Yeldon RB Probable Groin
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee
Jermey Parnell T Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 16
–
JAX 51

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 FG JAX (11:22) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. IND 0 – JAX 3
  • Q1 07:51 FG IND (7:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 13:50 FG IND (13:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD IND (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 5, RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at JAX -5. TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – JAX 3
  • Q2 01:11 TD JAX (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at JAX 42 for -8 yards (90-A.Branch). FUMBLES (90-A.Branch), RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Branch at IND 49. 90-A.Branch for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – JAX 9
  • Q3 13:45 TD JAX (13:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – JAX 15
  • Q3 12:06 TD JAX (12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – JAX 22
  • Q3 07:43 FG IND (7:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 16 – JAX 23
  • Q3 04:55 TD JAX (4:55) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – JAX 29
  • Q4 12:56 TD JAX (12:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – JAX 36
  • Q4 06:03 TD JAX (6:03) (Shotgun) 16-D.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – JAX 43
  • Q4 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 5-B.Bortles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – JAX 50

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (11:22) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:59) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to IND 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray to IND 41 for 3 yards (46-C.Tinker).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (5:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:21) 19-B.Anger punts 43 yards to IND 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray to IND 42 for 4 yards (87-N.Sterling). PENALTY on IND-30-D.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 42.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (13:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:13) 19-B.Anger punts 53 yards to IND 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 28 for no gain (57-T.Armbrister).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:57) 19-B.Anger punts 35 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-87-N.Sterling.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:48) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to IND 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

    (2:21) 1-P.McAfee punts 37 yards to JAX 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-83-D.Allen.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:54) 1-P.McAfee punts 63 yards to JAX 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 20 for no gain.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (7:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:00) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to JAX 31, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (11:16) (Shotgun) 6-C.Whitehurst pass incomplete deep middle to 15-P.Dorsett.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:45) (No Huddle) 6-C.Whitehurst up the middle to IND 31 for 2 yards (75-J.Odrick).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 5-B.Bortles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.