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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 28

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model