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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 37

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Shotgun) 6-C.Whitehurst pass incomplete deep middle to 15-P.Dorsett.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model