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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.25 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model