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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 19-B.Anger punts 35 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-87-N.Sterling.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP