Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

(12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model