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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP