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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to IND 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model