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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model