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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 20:30 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

IND
37.9%
PIT
62.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.226 vs Matt Hasselbeck (IND) +0.150 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Anthony Castonzo T Out Knee
Jerrell Freeman LB Out Hamstring
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Hugh Thornton G Out Elbow
Phillip Dorsett WR Out Ankle
Khaled Holmes C Questionable Fibula
Mike Adams S Probable Ankle
Vontae Davis CB Probable Ankle
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Not Injury Related
Gregory Toler CB Probable Not Injury Related
Erik Walden LB Probable Heel

PIT

Sean Spence LB Out Hamstring
Heath Miller TE Questionable Rib
Will Allen S Probable Ankle
Martavis Bryant WR Probable Hip
James Harrison LB Probable Knee
Michael Mitchell S Probable Knee
Ben Roethlisberger QB Probable Concussion
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Concussion
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 10
–
PIT 45

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 FG IND (10:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 05:30 FG PIT (5:30) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 3 – PIT 3
  • Q1 03:19 FG PIT (3:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 3 – PIT 6
  • Q2 08:32 TD IND (8:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 23-F.Gore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – PIT 6
  • Q2 04:08 TD PIT (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – PIT 12
  • Q2 00:14 TD PIT (:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-M.Wheaton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – PIT 20
  • Q3 12:44 TD PIT (12:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 10-M.Bryant for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – PIT 27
  • Q4 14:15 TD PIT (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – PIT 34
  • Q4 06:33 FG PIT (6:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 10 – PIT 38
  • Q4 04:18 TD PIT (4:18) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to PIT 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-84-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. IND 10 – PIT 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (10:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (5:30) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 72%

    (3:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%

    (12:36) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 33 yards to PIT 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to PIT 46, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 39 yards to PIT 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-Jac.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 32, recovered by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey at PIT 40. 88-D.Heyward-Bey to PIT 40 for no gain (30-D.Smith).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:10) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to PIT 22, Center-45-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 3 yards (42-C.Geathers).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 45%

    (11:05) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-32-C.Anderson.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 76%

    (6:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (3:44) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Whalen (31-R.Cockrell). Pressure by #91 Tuitt.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 85%

    (6:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:18) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to PIT 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-84-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:47) (Shotgun) 6-C.Whitehurst pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief to PIT 22 for 33 yards (23-M.Mitchell).