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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 91

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to PIT 46, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 48, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model