Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

(14:10) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to PIT 22, Center-45-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 3 yards (42-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model