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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model