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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 39 yards to PIT 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-Jac.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 32, recovered by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey at PIT 40. 88-D.Heyward-Bey to PIT 40 for no gain (30-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP