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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:44) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Whalen (31-R.Cockrell). Pressure by #91 Tuitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model