Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 45

(2:47) (Shotgun) 6-C.Whitehurst pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief to PIT 22 for 33 yards (23-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.99 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model