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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP