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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model