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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Thursday 2015-12-03 · 20:25 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

GB
50.8%
DET
49.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
DET 22
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

GB

Ty Montgomery WR Out Ankle
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle
T.J. Lang G Questionable Shoulder
Corey Linsley C Questionable Ankle
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Knee
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle
Jared Abbrederis WR Probable Rib
Demetri Goodson CB Probable Illness
Micah Hyde S Probable Hip
Nate Palmer LB Probable Foot
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

DET

Lance Moore WR Out Ankle
Caraun Reid DT Questionable Ankle
Travis Swanson C Questionable Ankle
Larry Warford G Questionable Concussion
Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Matt Prater K Questionable Illness
Glover Quin S Questionable Ankle
James Ihedigbo S Probable Hamstring
Golden Tate WR Probable Calf
Gabe Wright DT Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 27
–
DET 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:53 FG DET (8:53) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 01:53 TD DET (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [21-H.Clinton-Dix]. GB 0 – DET 9
  • Q1 01:08 TD DET (1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 81-C.Johnson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 16
  • Q3 08:58 FG DET (8:58) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 0 – DET 20
  • Q3 05:53 TD GB (5:53) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks right tackle to DET 5 for 3 yards (42-I.Abdul-Quddus). FUMBLES (42-I.Abdul-Quddus), recovered by GB-18-R.Cobb at DET 0. TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 20
  • Q3 04:12 TD GB (4:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DET 20
  • Q4 07:11 FG DET (7:11) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 14 – DET 23
  • Q4 03:12 TD GB (3:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – DET 23
  • Q4 00:00 TD GB (:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 31 yards to DET 32, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (8:53) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:51) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to DET 24, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 87%

    (12:19) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:26) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to GB 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:25) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to DET 29, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 35 for 6 yards (30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 29.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to GB 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:19) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:45) 8-T.Masthay punts 53 yards to DET 10, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:21) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to GB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (8:58) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (:48) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to GB 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-59-T.Whitehead.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 59%

    (10:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to GB 34 for 4 yards (47-J.Ryan).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 86%

    (7:11) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (23-D.Slay).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:29) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to GB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.