4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 56

Detroit Lions 23 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(:29) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to GB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -1.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model