4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 54

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to GB 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-59-T.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP