Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to DET 29, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 35 for 6 yards (30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 29.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model