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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 8-T.Masthay punts 53 yards to DET 10, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP