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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 24

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model