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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 38

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to GB 34 for 4 yards (47-J.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.51 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model