4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to DET 24, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP