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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 14 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (23-D.Slay).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.92 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model