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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

CAR
61.5%
NO
38.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.211 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR on 3 more days rest than NO
  • NO offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 26
–
NO 22
Projected margin: CAR by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CAR

Mario Addison DE Out Ankle
Charles Tillman CB Out Knee
Corey Brown WR Probable Shoulder
Kony Ealy DE Probable Neck
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Ankle
Star Lotulelei DT Probable Ankle

NO

John Jenkins DT Out Concussion
Willie Snead WR Doubtful Calf
Jahri Evans G Questionable Ankle
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Hip
Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Mark Ingram RB Probable Shoulder
Hau'oli Kikaha LB Probable Ankle
Jamarca Sanford S Probable Hip
David Hawthorne LB Probable Thigh
Damian Swann CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 41
–
NO 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:21 TD NO (8:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-B.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 0 CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 04:25 TD NO (4:25) 28-J.Stewart left guard to CAR 31 for 2 yards (50-S.Anthony). FUMBLES (50-S.Anthony), RECOVERED by NO-50-S.Anthony at CAR 31. 50-S.Anthony for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 0 – NO 13
  • Q2 15:00 TD CAR (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 35-M.Tolbert for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 12 CAR 6 – NO 14
  • Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – NO 14
  • Q3 10:26 TD CAR (10:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 19-T.Ginn for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 13, YAC 0 CAR 19 – NO 16
  • Q3 05:01 TD CAR (5:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 3 CAR 26 – NO 16
  • Q3 02:59 TD NO (2:59) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 10-B.Cooks for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-R.Delaire]. Pass 37, YAC 17 CAR 27 – NO 22
  • Q4 14:07 TD NO (14:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 16-B.Coleman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 18, YAC 6 CAR 27 – NO 30
  • Q4 12:02 TD CAR (12:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 42, YAC 3 CAR 33 – NO 31
  • Q4 05:27 TD NO (5:27) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-22-M.Ingram, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 34 – NO 37
  • Q4 01:10 TD CAR (1:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 82-J.Cotchery for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 0 CAR 40 – NO 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:20) 8-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to NO 44, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy ran ob at NO 49 for 5 yards (56-A.Klein).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (5:16) 5-K.Forbath 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 52%

    (1:33) 1-C.Newton left end to NO 11 for 30 yards (31-J.Byrd).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to CAR 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to CAR 26, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to CAR 19, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:39) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CAR 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:47) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to NO 36, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 38 for 2 yards (21-T.Williams). PENALTY on NO-24-K.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 38.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 41%

    (9:32) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 39%

    (2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen to NO 30 for 16 yards (91-K.Edebali). Pass 16, YAC 0 New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 10-B.Cooks.