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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 89

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 8-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to NO 44, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy ran ob at NO 49 for 5 yards (56-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.22 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 89, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP