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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 19 at the 89

New Orleans Saints 16 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CAR 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model